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Where is Hurricane Isaias going?

Nnorth-northeast · 15 mph24 km/h · per NHC advisory 11

Hurricane Isaias is about 370 mi (590 km) NNE of Progreso, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h), moving north-northeast at 15 mph (24 km/h).

“On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday.”

— National Hurricane Center
Max winds
110 mph
▲ from 105
Category 2
Cat 2
Pressure
963 mb
▼ from 972
NHC advisory 11 · 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 (Oct 9, 09:00 UTC)Next complete advisory: Intermediate update at 7:00 AM CDT

Checked NHC at

M1:00 PM FriH1:00 AM SatS1:00 PM SatD1:00 AM SunD1:00 PM Sun
Forecast conePast trackForecast trackTropical Storm WatchTropical Storm WarningHurricane Warning

The center can be anywhere in the cone. Impacts extend well beyond it.

What changed since advisory 10A

Maximum sustained winds105 → 110 mph ▲ stronger
Minimum central pressure972 → 963 mb ▼ stronger

Forecast strength, next 5 days

Max sustained winds · mph

Where NHC expects the center to be, and how strong it will be. The center can be anywhere in the cone; impacts extend well beyond it.

DepressionTropical stormCategory 1Category 2Category 30397496111Below hurricane strength110Now1201 PM Fri751 AM Sat401 PM Sat301 AM Sun151 PM SunDepressionTropical stormCategory 1Category 2Category 30397496111Below hurricane strength110Now12075401 PM Sat30151 PM Sun
Show forecast tableHide forecast table
Time (CDT)UTCPositionMax windsStrength
NowOct 9, 06:00 UTC26.4°N 88.0°W110 mph 175 km/hHurricane · Cat 2
1 PM FriOct 9, 18:00 UTC28.4°N 87.3°W120 mph 195 km/hHurricane · Cat 3
1 AM SatOct 10, 06:00 UTC31.0°N 87.1°W75 mph 120 km/hHurricane · Cat 1
1 PM SatOct 10, 18:00 UTC33.5°N 87.5°W40 mph 65 km/hSubtropical Storm
1 AM SunOct 11, 06:00 UTC35.5°N 86.7°W30 mph 45 km/hSubtropical Depression
1 PM SunOct 11, 18:00 UTC38.2°N 83.1°W15 mph 30 km/hSubtropical Depression

Chance of strong winds

NHC's chance of sustained winds at the places it lists, over the next 5 days. Places not listed have no figure; that does not mean they are safe.

PlaceTropical-storm force · 39+ mphHurricane force · 74+ mphMost likely to start
Gfam 290n 870w>99%Hurricane-force 60%
Pensacola, FL94%Hurricane-force 14%
Whiting Fld, FL92%Hurricane-force 9%
Destin Exec, AP88%Hurricane-force 7%
Panama City, FL63%Hurricane-force 2%
Gfam 280n 890w44%Hurricane-force <1%Now
Mobile, AL44%Hurricane-force <1%
Montgomery, AL37%Hurricane-force <1%
Apalachicola25%Hurricane-force <1%
Birmingham, AL18%Hurricane-force <1%
Dothan, AL18%Hurricane-force <1%
Gfam 290n 850w18%Hurricane-force <1%
Gulfport, MS6%Hurricane-force <1%—

Watches and warnings

From NHC advisory 11. Each country's weather service issues its own.

  • Storm Surge Warning
    • Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
  • Hurricane Warning
    • Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
  • Storm Surge Watch
    • Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL
  • Tropical Storm Warning
    • Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
    • East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

Official sources